Journal of Applied Ecology: Blackwell Synergy

Journal of Applied EcologyVolume 43 Page 599 - August 2006
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01182.x
Volume 43 Issue 4

The Guardian reports on aproject to identify the most pressing problems:

The key questions at the heart of the UK's environmental future · Academics hope list will influence policy decisions· Old and new controversies covered in debate David Adam, environment correspondentMonday August 21, 2006The Guardian (c)

Scientists have drawn up a list of the 100 biggest questions to face the UK environment, including controversies such as whether farmers should be allowed to kill badgers to protect their cattle from disease and how many seabirds are slaughtered by wind farms.


Dr [Bill] Sutherland said the list was an attempt to get politicians to base decisions more on the available scientific evidence, similar to the way medics treat patients based on pooled results rather than individual experience. His team published the questions in a report this month in the Journal of Applied Ecology.

Key issues

How long does the seabed take to recover from dredging, wind farm construction and oil and gas extraction?

How does the ecological impact of UK farming compare internationally?

What are the ecological impacts of airports?

What are the ecological impacts of faecal matter, pesticides and undigested food flows from aquaculture?

How can we better understand diseases within wildlife reservoirs to protect humans and livestock?

What impact does plastic litter have on the marine environment?

How can we measure natural capital (renewable and non renewable resources) and integrate such a measure into GDP?

What are the effects of light pollution on wildlife?

Which habitats and species might we lose completely in the UK because of climate change?

What hedgerow structure and management produce the greatest wildlife benefits?

How can flood control be assisted by habitat management and what are the impacts on biodiversity?

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Journal of Applied EcologyVolume 43 Page 599 - August 2006doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01182.x
Volume 43 Issue 4


THE TANSLEY LECTURE
Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods*
WILLIAM J. SUTHERLAND
Summary
1.
There is a clear need to increase our ability to predict the consequences of environmental change. The seven main approaches that are currently used are: extrapolation, experiments, phenomenological models, game-theory population models, expert opinion, outcome-driven modelling and scenarios. Each approach has different strengths and weaknesses. In practice, several approaches are often combined.
2.
Adaptive management aimed at testing hypotheses is excellent in principle and widely advocated. In reality, however, it is almost never carried out because the changes in management usually have to be severe in order to bring about detectable changes in a reasonable time, and the political risks of such management are usually considered too high.
3.
Game-theory population models are used to determine population-level phenomena based upon the decisions individuals make in response to resource depletion, interference, territoriality or rank. This allows predictions to be made regarding responses to novel conditions. The main drawback is that for some models considerable information is required.
4.
Much of conservation practice is not based upon evidence. Evidence-based conservation is the practice of accumulating, reviewing and disseminating evidence with the aim of formulating appropriate management strategies. Evidence-based medicine revolutionized medical practice and similar opportunities exist to improve conservation practice.
5.
Synthesis and applications. The conventional approach of making assumptions and deriving models to make predictions about the consequences of environmental change is often unsatisfactory for complex problems, with considerable uncertainty. Tackling such problems is likely to require greater exploration of techniques such as expert opinion, output-driven modelling and scenarios.

Journal of Applied Ecology (2006) 43, 599–616doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01182.x